PGR’s network believes BIDU has the most to gain should GOOG pull out of China. However, others stand to gain as well including MSFT’s Bing, SOHU’s Sogo, Alibaba, SINA, and SOHU albeit to a far lesser extent. Why? Well, GOOG was very good at monetizing traffic, thus its revenue pie would not likely transition altogether to other players who monetize less effectively.

Experts note that BIDU’s Phoenix Nest continues to weigh on ad spending at the site in the near term as improving click-throughs give advertisers the same results for less, reducing ad spending. Longer term, marketers believe BIDU’s improved performance will attract more dollars by providing more qualified leads and higher conversions.

Of course GOOG hasn’t quit China yet and at least one network expert suggested China’s government may quietly accede to uncensored search results. The rationale being that information on Google.cn is less threatening than what could potentially occur in web 2.0, which is where censorship is focused today.

Referencing spending plans, PGR’s network sees strong growth in Chinese and global online advertising in 2010. Experts also note increased experimentation with advertising on Chinese social-networking and video sites, where usage is growing strongly.

Tweet This Post