Semiconductor Distribution Book-to-Bill Trends Still Look Good
pgresearchTuesday, December 1st, 2009
Some IC manufacturers view semiconductor distributors as the ugly red-headed step child who slaves away, building up inventory and fulfilling orders. When the electronics industry is hot and fabs are at full capacity distributors can get the short end of the stick as IC companies decide to support high volume and key customers instead of the distributors. In the past, when business was slow, IC companies tried to put inventory in the channel in order to move product. By understanding what’s going on with distributors we can get a general sense of demand at IC manufacturers. So the question is what are some metrics or leading indicators to look for when trying to understand if distribution business will be getting better or worse? There are many numbers that people look at like bookings, billings, book-to-bill, lead times, days of inventory pricing, etc…One metric that continues to trend well is book-to-bill ratio; it’s a ratio of bookings within a time period (usually a month or quarter) and billings within the same period. In a slow economy we generally want to see a book-to-bill >1, which usually means that business is picking up. Over the last few months book-to-bill has been >1; partly due to longer lead times which cause customers to place orders. Looking forward things still remain positive in the short term but there is uncertainty in the air and our PGR network remains cautious about the future.
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Posted in Bob Nguyen, Semiconductor | No Comments »
Does it matter what’s inside a touch screen handset?
pgresearchFriday, August 7th, 2009
I went to my local Sprint retail store today, walked around and took a look at the 30+ different types of handsets they had on display. There were smartphones, square phones, flip phones, sliders and candy bar phones throughout but my real purpose was to find that one phone that had a “wow” factor that would cause me to switch network providers and spend a few hundred dollars to help the economy. The Palm Pre and HTC Pro stood out as devices that impressed.
What makes the Palm Pre and HTC Pro so impressive? Right now, it’s touch technology that makes them desirable but as a consumer do we really care who is providing the technology? My thought at the moment is both yes and no. Yes, because we care that the screen responds quickly and accurately. No, because we don’t care if company X or company Y makes the handset touch screen cable; all we care about is if the thing works well and looks hip.
Touch technology providers are in an interesting spot right now. A normal consumer may not know who is making the Palm Pre or HTC Pro touch screen capable but can tell the difference between a good and bad interface. In the long run, touch technology providers may find it hard to charge a premium for products but until more competition and the “wow” factor of touch screen handsets wears off things should be fine. Do you care who is making your Apple iPhone, Blackberry Storm, Palm Pre, HTC Pro, Motorola Krave, Samsung Instinct or LG Dare touch screen enabled?
Tags: touch technology
Posted in Author, Bob Nguyen, Semiconductor, Technology | No Comments »
Why do we care about capacitive touch?
BN_TechTuesday, July 7th, 2009
Why do we care about capacitive touch? The short answer is because it’s cool and it’s a growing business despite the economic downturn. Capacitive touch technology has been around for years. As a consumer, we first experienced this technology in our notebook; the notebook touchpad is capacitive and likely supplied by Synaptics or Alps. Then came the scroll wheel on Apple’s iPod and now the technology is migrating into handsets. On the business side pretty much all notebooks/netbooks come with capacitive touchpad technology and handset manufacturers are all working to get more handsets out with touch capability.
The future outlook for capacitive touch is promising. We’re seeing more and more touch capability in smartphones: iPhone, Blackberry Storm, Palm Pre, etc… and on the horizon are capacitive touchscreen notebooks/netbooks. Consumers are still willing to pay for this cool technology. My question to you: who do you think benefits the most from this expanding market and why (handset makers, PC makers, capacitive touch module makers, mobile carriers, the consumer, etc…)? My short answer is the module maker; because handset manufacturers and consumers are still willing to pay a premium for the technology. Would manufacturers be willing to pay a premium if consumers aren’t?
Tags: capacitive touch
Posted in Bob Nguyen | 2 Comments »