Top 6 Takeaways from Intersolar Conference, Munich:

1. Global Demand: We believe that the global demand for 2H 2010 based on responses from our experts could be anywhere between 5-6GW. Overall for FY 2010 it is clear that the year end rush in markets like Germany and Italy could swing the numbers between ~10GW on the low end up to 13GW. For 2011, our experts believe that it could be similar to 2010 or slightly slower. But if the global growth trends continue, 2011 could well be ~10-20% higher than 2010 global demand.

2. Demand From The Czech Republic, Benelux And The US: With great focus on countries like the Czech Republic, US and the Benelux nations in terms of global demand, we asked our experts about their expectation for these markets. Our experts seem to anticipate that the Czech Republic could be anywhere between ~700-800MW in 2010; Benelux nations to account for ~300-400MW and the US to account for as much as 400MW at the very least and up to ~900MW on the high end for 2010. As for the US market that is anticipated to be a growth market for PV in 2011 given the impending cuts in FiTs in other geographies, our experts believe that it could be ~1GW or higher in 2011.

3. New Application Status In Countries Like The Czech Republic And Italy: It appears that the Czech Republic is facing problems with regard to solar projects getting connected to the grid. But in Italy, new applications still seem to be accepted for solar project installations.

4. Pricing For Q3 and Q4 2010 For Wafers, Cells and Modules: As it regards pricing, it appears that prices for wafers, cells and modules are currently up. In Q3, cells and module prices are largely expected to be flat to slightly increase and in Q4, the expectation is that cells and module prices will be flat to slightly down.

5.Cell And Panel Cost Reduction: With regard to cell and panel cost reduction in Q3 and Q4 it appears that no significant cost reduction can be expected in Q3 or Q4 of this year.

6.Clarity Regarding A Possible National FiT In China: While it appears that our experts are anticipating a National FiT at some point in China to be announced, the time line for such an announcement seems unclear at this time. That said, it is evident that the domestic Chinese players stand to benefit the most if and when such an announcement is made.

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Tags: intersolar 2010, munich intersolar

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010 at 9:23 am and is filed under Energy, Pallavi Madakasira, Solar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.