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Archive for June, 2009

Thoughts on FSLR Analyst Day

Ishita Manjrekar
Friday, June 26th, 2009

We were at the FSLR analyst day on Wednesday. I have to say I was surprised at how easily everyone let management off. I would have expected to hear more pressing questions on:

* Current market conditions in Europe
* How is FSLR combating the financing bottleneck?
* How exactly does the company expect its business model to evolve?
* What needs to happen to hit the 12.5% efficiency target by 2012?
* What parts of the manufacturing process offer potential in terms of hitting these targets?
* Clarity on Phoenix’s recent comments on the solar market

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Physician data mining should be legit in the information age

pgresearch
Monday, June 22nd, 2009

IMS is fighting a law prohibiting the collection of prescribing data from physicians in New Hampshire, Vermont, and potentially a host of other states. (BusinessWeek Article) The law, which takes effect July 1 in Vermont, is being appealed by IMS this Tuesday, June 23. While timely with the current debates on healthcare reform, these laws do not address any core issue related to the country’s healthcare problems.

You can blame any number of inefficiencies in the healthcare system on medical error, lack of preventative care, antiquated medical record keeping, uninsured patients, etc. An obvious scapegoat is the pharmaceutical companies, as well - who, while spending billions of dollars on marketing their drugs, do, ultimately, provide therapeutics that improve the lives of many. But wait. This is not an issue of whether or not pharmaceutical marketing strategies are economically efficient practices. It is a question of whether or not companies like IMS and SDI should be able to aggregate this data and sell it to customers, like pharmaceutical companies.

If access to physician prescribing data is cut off, I see a few ways (off the top of my head) that pharmaceutical companies will get around it - because assuredly, they will find a way:

1) Pharma companies may throw more money at the system in order to gain mindshare among a less-targeted pool of prospective physician prescribers and patients (hire more sales people - whose jobs are now more difficult than ever, increase direct-to-consumer advertising, boost marketing activity at conferences, host events to build brand loyalty, etc.)

2) While IMS has an opt-out strategy, what about market research organizations who recruit an army of physicians to opt in to provide this data? A number of physicians would like to protect their privacy, but I would think just as many - if not more - would be okay providing this information, especially if they were a) compensated for it and/or b) given the opportunity to try new or competitive therapeutics that were not on their radar. Pharma companies would pay top dollar for a replacement for IMS, if it were no longer available.

By restricting the collection of this information, it does not getting to the root of the problem. Pharmaceutical marketing teams will still find a way to influence physician prescribing habits and will spend the money because it results in higher sales. For example, generic competition is definitely putting pressure on the pharma space, but in addition to sales force downsizing, we hear about companies cutting back on R&D and halting some clinical trials in order to focus their resources on activities that will turn a more near-term profit. Based on this, marketing would be the last to go. This is not a sustainable solution.

The data provided by organizations like IMS is valuable and should be available for marketing teams to optimize their strategy. If the concern is that healthcare costs are driven up because of this data, the problems that need to be addressed are physician decision-making or marketing practices, not access to third-party information providers.

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You can teach an old dog new tricks - McAfee's EPO Runs Circles Around Other Competitive Products

Laxmi Poruri
Monday, June 15th, 2009

PGR experts overwhelmingly agree that McAfee’s E-Policy Orchestrator (EPO) mature product runs circles around other competitive products in the immature security management space because of ease of use and ease of implementation. Experts also point to customer preference for bundled solutions as pricing stands at the top of the list for most important criteria in this market.

Experts also note that bundled solutions are winning out over point solutions, due to lower prices points and overall TCO.

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Intel: Mis-steps, Milestones, and Money

Unni Narayanan
Thursday, June 11th, 2009

In 1998, I moved to the Silicon Valley and accepted a position with Intel. I recall telling a good friend’s father, an old time valley engineer, that I was going to start work with the famous microprocessor company. He took a deep breath, looked side to side, and after a lengthy dramatic pause, decisively said “They’re the only game in town.” It turned out at the time he was not exactly right. Several factors conspired over the next few years to significantly erode Intel’s pre-eminence and fat margins - notably AMD’s successful execution around a low cost microprocessor, Intel’s own mis-execution of its 64 bit strategy, and countless other mis-steps that were exacerbated by the dot-com bust.

Since that time, Intel has morphed into a bloated organization, anchored down heavily by negative publicity around anti-trust law suits, and overwhelmed by one of the worst global economic cycles anyone can remember. When I look at Intel’s stock price, I cringe when I realize that my 1998 options actually had a strike price that was higher than today’s trading range. And yet, I believe now more than ever - my friend’s father is correct “Intel IS the only game in town”. What makes me think that? Well, last week Fred Pollack, retired Intel Fellow, spoke at our First Technology Conference and he made a very convincing case.

Let me summarize Fred’s analysis in one sentence “Intel only loses when AMD has a competitive CPU microarchitecture and when it is less than 6 months behind Intel on process technology.” Fred basically argued that the conditions for AMD to achieve these milestones were highly unlikely and depend upon some major screw-ups from Intel.

Now Fred knows what he is talking about - after all he was Chief Architect of the original Pentium Pro chip and is up to his neck in industry accolades. But, let’s dive into the merits of his argument (and not his resume). Consider three segments of the market: (1) Server (2) Desktop and (3) Mobile. In the server segment, Fred expects Intel’s Nehalm-EP/EX to eliminate AMD’s DP platform advantage. On the desktop, Pollack noted that several Intel processor variants outperform AMD’s Phenom II (Shanghai) when run at the same clockspeed. And, then on the notebook side - he observed that Intel already has offerings ahead on the process technology curve. He buttressed that last point by noting that Intel was a year ahead on 32nm offerings with product coming out of Intel’s fabs in Q4 of this year.

In other words, Fred believes that it is Intel’s game to lose and that they aren’t going to let that happen again. Specifically, Intel is employing a “Tick/Tock” design strategy where microarchitecture designs are being alternated between two teams (in Haifa, Israel and Hillsboro, Oregon). And, so if you think there is going to be a PC/Mobile boom in 2010 (and 99% of the world thinks that) - there is only one table open at the casino and Intel is the dealer. Ladies and gentleman, exchange your cash for (micro)chips and let the game begin!

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Challenges in High-End Handsets

Unni Narayanan
Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

As we view current developments, key challenges for processor manufacturers aiming to grab the high-end handset brass ring i.e., Intel and ARM, include helping batteries last as long as possible and accommodate “easy to adopt” features that handset manufacturers need.

Who’s going to prevail? Well, stay tuned. It’s certainly something that we’re following closely. We’d love to hear your thoughts, too!

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Ntap/Data Domain: duplicate product?

Unni Narayanan
Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

At first glance, NetApp may now appear to have “duplicate” products since it already offers a free de-duplication solution. But, the dynamics of the marketplace make the arranged marriage of NTAP and Data Domain a must. The reality is threefold: (more…)

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Growing Trend in Utilities

Ishita Manjrekar
Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

PGR experts indicate that the adoption of a smarter grid by utilities is a growing trend. A smart grid will allow a utility to better plan their resources. Every utility has a multitude of circuits, some of which are at their maximum capacity and some at their minimum capacity at any given time. The utility however, has to feed the maximum amount of power into both circuits, to ensure all customers have electricity at all times.

With a smart grid utilities would be able to observe the underutilized circuit and scale back the amount of power supply to it, thus saving money which would otherwise have been spent to buy additional generation. Experts also note growing evidence that utility customers are responding positively to time varied pricing and once they experience these prices many customers prefer them to standard pricing options. Demand response technologies are essential to mitigating market power and price volatility in competitive wholesale markets. This can reduce the need for new generation capacity, improve reliability, and address climate concerns. The combination of grid efficiency, demand response, operational benefits, improved outage detection and management, improvements in transmission and distribution planning, and cost savings and improvements in customer service and billing are all tangible benefits that utilities realize by way of investing in a “smart grid”.

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